The NFL heads into Week 3 as autumn has officially arrived. We have one last week in September and we’ve already got plenty of chaos in the NFL. I don’t think anybody was prediction a 2-0 Raiders squad, and even 2-0 Vikings is catching me off guard. On the other hand, I definitely wasn’t expecting 0-2 starts by the Chargers or Buccaneers. There’s a long way to go, but it’s getting wild already!
I’m back with another round of Survivor picks. You pick one team each week to win. If they win you advance, if they lose you’re out in most cases. I’m in one pool with four entries, but it’s also a double-elimination pool. I managed to get one of my entries eliminated in two weeks after taking the Chargers in Week 1 and the Bucs in Week 2. Another entry has me down a strike after the Bucs loss last week (I took the Steelers in Week 1). My other two entries remain fully alive having gone Jaguars/Eagles with one and Raiders/49ers with the other.
Below I’ve got a look at the safest choices, best value picks, and then trap picks. I’ll post my own picks at the end. Since I publish this article on Thursday, I’ll update on Sunday once I lock in my three picks.
I’ve included odds for the favorite in each game, courtesy of FanDuel.
Safest picks
Chiefs (-11.5) over Dolphins
Kansas City is headed on the road, but Miami stinks. You’re probably better off saving the Chiefs for later in the season, but you can do worse than using them this week.
Best value picks
Packers (-5.5) over Falcons
The Packers haven’t impressed thus far, but the Falcons are truly awful. The one concern is that Michael Penix improves things, but Falcons fans aren’t particularly high on him on their own. I was leaning toward listing this as a trap game given the QB change and it’s a short week game, but I’m that low on Atlanta.
Trap pick
Bills (-7) over Chargers
Seahawks (-7) over Commanders
I think Buffalo and Seattle both win, but these games are just a little bit tricky. LA has been a huge underachiever this season, but they have the talent to turn it around. The Bills are a touchdown favorite, but you’re better saving them for Week 14 against the Dolphins.
The Commanders lost Jayden Daniels to a dislocated elbow and it’s Marcus Mariota time. He’s nothing special, but with Seattle traveling cross-country for a 1 p.m. ET start, it’s probably best to skip this one. You can save the Seahawks for Week 9 at home against the Cardinals or Week 14 at home against the Giants.
My picks this week
I’ll be using the Chiefs to some degree this week. The other two weeks I’d use them at this point are Week 9 vs. the Jets and Week 11 vs. the Cardinals. Both weeks I can find comparable or better options. I’m also leaning 49ers over Cardinals with one of my picks. They’re playing well, but similarly have enough tough games that I’m comfortable passing on them later. I’m tempted by the Packers, but they get the Dolphins at home in Week 15. Who knows if I’ll make it that far, but I’m willing to wait.
