It’s time for the white-hot passion of promise to meet the sopping wet blanket of doubt. It’s not exactly fun to talk about the teams who are overrated before a single snap of meaningful football is played, but nevertheless, it’s something that has to be done. Whether you were paying attention to Super Bowls odds in June, or if the entire league is an academic exercise, there are always teams who get too much credit before things kick off.
Let’s look at the four teams for the 2026 season who are getting far too much credit based on where they actually are on their respective timelines.
Saying the Bears are overrated hurts, because it really feels like handing a kid an ice cream cone and then slapping it out of their tiny hands. Bears fans have waited so long to be relevant that they were collectively pushed way too high in the majority of preseason rankings and potential Super Bowl teams.
Ben Johnson is a phenomenal football coach on the offensive side of the ball, and Chicago should be able to remain strong in that area — but the defense is an absolute mess. If we just look at 2025 this was a team that ranked 23rd in points allowed, 29th in yards allowed, 22nd against the pass, and 28th against the run. The saving grace is that the Bears generated an abnormal number of turnovers, with a net rating of +22, which masked how bad the defense was.
The thing about abnormal stats is that they’re abnormal. It’s highly unlikely the Bears will generate as many turnovers in 2026, which will expose the defense even further. Chicago has all the trappings of a 9-8 team that is being treated like a 13+ win juggernaut.
For the life of me I don’t understand why people are as high on the Texans as they are right now. At the time of writing they’re not just favored in the AFC South, but are tied 9th in Super Bowl odds — barely behind the Chiefs and Eagles.
We know the Houston defense is phenomenal, but this is another season where C.J. Stroud is playing behind a shaky offensive line, and David Montgomery remains a middling running back at best. In order to hit the kind of highs the Texans are being billed for they will need to have an identical defensive performance as a year ago, and Stroud will need to become a drastically better quarterback — all while the roster is more or less the same.
Not seeing the hype here. Good team? Yes. Playoff team? Yes. Super Bowl contender? No.
Yeah, I’m throwing two teams from the NFC North in here because I think the division is fantastic when it comes to creating quality football teams, but abysmal when it comes to the playoffs.
Two things can be true: 1. I think Jordan Love is better than most people give him credit for, and 2. The Packers are perennially overrated. Each year they get the billing of true Super Bowl contender, and each year they squander it. I don’t fundamentally see how this season will be different, especially entering the year without Josh Jacobs, who might not play a snap of NFL football again.
Micah Parsons isn’t enough in isolation to turn this defense into an elite unit. Meanwhile the receivers are still coming together, and the team will likely be one-dimensional on offense. This is a team that is probably a 12 win team, but not a Super Bowl caliber team.
No. 4: Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are exactly who we think they are. This team has one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, the best wide receiver — but year after year we see that Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase aren’t good enough in isolation to win a championship.
As it stands, the Bengals are being given better Super Bowl odds than the 49ers, Lions, or Broncos. Truly astonishing for a team that still doesn’t possess a defense or a decent offensive line, and is still being led by the most mediocre head coach in football.
Being trapped in this notion that a team can win with just a great quarterback and receiver is locked in old thinking. It’s almost the trap we fell for every year with the Peyton Manning Colts, except that team had legitimate pass rushers in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. The Bengals have none of that, and will be an above average team, but nothing truly special.
