Oh, what a beautiful moooooooorning, because there are TWO American men in my US Open top four rankings yes that is TWO American men and they are playing each other thus guaranteeing ONE of them will be in the final no matter what. I’m positively giddy.
As I said earlier this tournament, I am the Charlie Brown of American men’s tennis, and winning a Grand Slam is Lucy and the football. You will pry my hope from my cold, dead hands, and I will see an American man win a slam if it is the last thing I do. This is, full stop, the best chance we’ve had since 2003 — of the five unstoppable tennis Gods of my lifetime (Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner) none of them remain in the bracket. Ben Shelton, our strongest soldier, already beat one of them at 3:30 AM in one of the better matches I’ve seen. It really is now or never.
For rational consumers, I have included odds from FanDuel Sportsbook so you can see how my rankings match up with the market. For irrational consumers, I have also included odds that I made up out of thin air to put a number on my opinions. I hope one of them enhances your experience of reading this wonderfully optimistic article.
FanDuel odds to win it all: -115
Oliver’s vibed odds to win it all: -185
Random hot take: Zverev can really change his legacy with a win here
If there was an individual who exemplified the words “always the bridesmaid, never the bride” in men’s tennis, it was Zverev for a long time. I was writing these columns before what felt like every tournament and saying “yep, here’s Alexander Zverev, readily available to lose to whichever of the Alcaraz, Sinner, or Djokovic trio was available to beat him.” But not anymore. Now, with a French Open title and a Wimbledon final appearance in 2026, Zverev could challenge the notion that men’s tennis is a duopoly. Why not a triumvirate?
I think Zverev is a larger favorite than the FanDuel odds suggest; he has dominant career records over all the remaining players, and he has the most complete and threatening game left in the bracket. His serve is as powerful as Shelton’s but more accurate, and he should come away with his first hardcourt Slam he just plays his game and doesn’t make a mistake. Khachanov shouldn’t present much of an issue for Zverev; it’s not a forgone conclusion, but he’s definitely the favorite.
FanDuel odds to win it all: +160
Oliver’s vibed odds to win it all: +225
Random hot take: Serve-and-volley Shelton = best Shelton
Before Tuesday’s match became a liminal, 3:30 AM black hole from which no light or time could escape, it was actually quite the chess match which saw Shelton employ the serve and volley technique against Alcaraz to good effect like it was the 1980s. John McEnroe on the ESPN call was loving it since he made use of the tactic against Bjorn Borg way back the in the day. In the golden age of the passing shot (today), it’s definitely become an underrated tool.
With modern racquet tech creating futuristic spin rates, the serve and volley playstyle can’t be your whole focus. But Shelton managed to freak out the clay-court-raised European he was playing by charging the net and taking up space, forcing Alcaraz into a decision he maybe wasn’t ready to make. If Shelton were to defeat Tiafoe, he’d have yet more Europeans to play. It would be a shame if he abandoned the serve and volley in favor of just hitting ground strokes, a strategy liable to get him in hot water with rally-happy opponents.
FanDuel odds to win it all: +1000
Oliver’s vibed odds to win it all: +800
Random hot take: Tiafoe is the spiritual embodiment of American men’s tennis
Lots of press after the Tiafoe/Michelsen match pointed to the resilience of Tiafoe in turning a match he was four points away from losing into a win. It was in some ways a metaphor for the resilience that makes Tiafoe such an unlikely tennis supernova — he is the son of Sierra Leone immigrants who fled a civil war, and Tiafoe slept on a folding table at his father’s work at a Maryland tennis academy. Tiafoe is an impossible dream realized, but he has made his own fate. On the court, he’s always played with the energy of an unquenchable engine, knowing that even if his opponent was better than him, he was tougher. You can do this, because you can always do this.
If you don’t love Frances Tiafoe, the door is over there. I have often lauded Tiafoe’s ability to play up to his opponent in five-set matches, a skill I think some of the other American hopefuls lacked. Five-setters in Grand Slams really do require a mental strength that the three-setters of the rest of the ATP Tour do not demand: you lose the first set, you might need four more hours to dig this out. So go do it. Tiafoe can do it.
FanDuel odds to win it all: +1300
Oliver’s vibed odds to win it all: +2000
Random hot take: Khachanov is like one of those recurring guest stars in a sitcom … on the ATP Tour
Karen Khachanov seems to pop up when you least expect him to and smoke some unsuspecting ranked player in a Grand Slam, this time third-seeded Felix-Auger Aliassime, who Khachanov kinda just … destroyed for his first win in a Grand Slam over a top-five player. He’s the kind of guy you forget about but then pops back up in the middle of an episode, “oh, Khachanov, I remember him! I wonder what he’s been up to?”
Well, he hasn’t been up to much in the last three years. Before this run to the semis, Khachanov had made just one major quarterfinal since 2023 and fell from a career-high ranking of eight all the way down to the 50s. He’s always been a dangerous player to mess around with, though, and while he hasn’t had the consistency of the rest of his generation’s top talent, his peaks can be oppressive to play against. Out of five matches at the US Open, he’s won in straight sets in three of them, very quickly defeated Auger-Aliassime in four and only really battled with Learner Tien in a five-setter. Could he upset Zverev? Sure! I wouldn’t … bet on that happening, but sure!
